Many of you have asked me to review my decision to stop the blog. Okay, I will review my decision, but not until the middle of January. Many of you have commented that you realize that doing the blog updates are time consuming. They are not only time consuming; they are discouraging for me because, despite logic and obvious data, I see our government going in a sad direction. Nalu Girl noted that I “approach our problems with logic as well as emotion.” Although I try to gather/interpret data unemotionally, emotion does come in when I discuss our country’s options. For example, we can continue in our current direction and after some years we will have a country with a relatively few very wealthy people who live on high hills surrounded by fences and bodyguards to protect them from the poorer masses. There certainly are a lot of countries in the world like that, so I guess this is a viable option. It is just that I don’t want my children to live in such a country. And I feel strongly about that, even if my children could end up being in that group on top of the hill! To quote a friend’s email to me: “Sad to know we are infested with politics that cultivates the attitude that the rich deserve to be richer and the poor deserve to be poorer while spinning it so that many of the poor believe in and support those politicians.”
The other reason I have to stop the blog for a while is that I have been contracted by McGraw-Hill to do a second edition of my book “Statistics for Six Sigma Made Easy.” This book sells very well worldwide, and McGraw-Hill wants me to update it to include current needs, like how Six Sigma assists in manufacturing innovation. This project will be taking much of my time for the next six weeks.
I will keep the blog site active until I review my decision in the middle of January. I will be reading your comments but not taking the time to respond. I encourage all of you to discuss the economy among yourselves and work through data on your own. Several of you have commented that I have been a good teacher, so let me see what you have learned!
Have an enjoyable holiday season everyone. I am looking forward to spending time with my family without having to think about my blog update!
December 2, 2011 at 7:51 pm |
Hello Warren:
I am glad you are taking a break to think about this. Also, I plan to purchase your updated “Statistics for Six Sigma Made Easy” book when it comes out. I liked and purchased the original.
December 2, 2011 at 7:57 pm |
While I do not like your politics, I like the information that you present and the way that you present the data.
Right now I am shorting the hell out of 10 and 30 yr treasuries, betting that the inflation that you speak of, will in fact occur. With the SS, obama care, prescription drug plan, medicare, medicade all going to come due, 130 trillion, I am betting that the fed prints a butload of money inorder to pay for all of it. The 70′s interest rates will be nothing compaired to what will be comming in the next 10 years.
I understand doing all the DD to get the data is tiresome and seeing obvious common sense logic thrown out the window in favor of BS politics, on both sides I might add, is emtionally draining for everyone. You may want to consider an update every 3 months or even six mths if necessessary.
FYI, There is no reason to get frustrated with the politics, because the polititions only care about 1 thing, getting releceted and staying in power. They know that IF solutions were implemented to these problems there would be no need for these same politiions, this thinking is on both sides of the political spectrum. So the question that really comes to the forfront is why do we keep these same Aholes in office. That is because the polititions, keep to the same script, it is dem vs rep, with us or against them. It really should be we the people vs the lying politicians. When you realize that, you see the real politics in the rich vs poor, environmentals vs oil compaines etc., you will understand it boils down to power and money for the politicians.
December 5, 2011 at 5:20 pm |
I would be careful with shorting US treasuries. Not that I wouldn’t have thought about things like that.
Germany is making a very strong push this week to tidy up the Euro. Treaty changes, constitutional amendments, veto powers over budgets, mandatory budget surplus rules, automatic penalties, dragging violators into court.
You know, the whole nine yards, and we want it now.
Our Iron Angel(a) Merkel’s speech was laced with “must”, “no”, “never”, “unthinkable”
http://www.bundeskanzlerin.de/Content/EN/Artikel/__2011/12/2011-12-02-europ_C3_A4ischer-rat-regierungserkl_C3_A4rung__en.html
If successful, that makes the inflationary route significantly more difficult for the UK and US. But if that would fail, the Euro crashes, a lot of people would buy treasuries, no matter what the conditions.
December 5, 2011 at 7:23 pm
I have heard all about germany and the euro, I am more concerned with the fundamentals with the US and the technicals on the treasury market.
The fundamentals, 130 tril in unfunded liabilities, 15 tril dollar economy and 15 tril in curent debt. This is just the federal gov and is UNSUSTANABLE anyway you cut it.
The technicals, long term fibinochi broken, and a double bottom in the 30 yr chart. Not to mention, all markets revert to their mean, and the mean for treasuries is 7.85% and that is going back to the 1800′s.
The biggest black swan event would be a mass selling of US treasuries, even the Fed and Treasury beleive that no one would ever sell in mass US treasuries. It is a long position that has gone way to far for way too long.
Anyways, Warren what ever your decsion is I thank you for the discussion and wish you the best.
December 3, 2011 at 3:06 am |
Hello Warren,
Please…please consider countinuing your bi-weekly updates!
I truly enjoy them and the discussions we have.
Have a good holiday season and a productive New Year.
All the best, Peter.
December 4, 2011 at 12:48 am |
Why not simply post whenever you wish? And make RSS options overly visible so that people can subscribe without actually having to visit the site. I sure would appreciate your thoughts whenever they would come and however in-frequent.
Best of luck (skill) with the book
December 4, 2011 at 1:31 am |
Well shoot, I was just referred here from a person on the OWS forum. I will read your past entries!
Happy holidays … (-:
Karen
December 5, 2011 at 7:40 am |
Thanks, this was a refreshing news
Happy holidays.
//Matti
December 5, 2011 at 4:55 pm |
Warren, please continue.
I really enjoy to see your comments as a sign of light, that there are reasonable people across the pond. Who look on data the same way I do.
With respect to FMEA, in my industry (semiconductor) I found all 3 dimensions (S,O,D) important. We had an excel sheet for that, and then it is just 2 more columns
December 6, 2011 at 11:48 pm |
Dear Warren
Today I discovered your blog. I am from another country and I would like you continue to post your comments, even if you do not reply to the comments and for a simple reason:
You can eventually help many people with your blog.
Perhaps they can avoid becoming much poorer.
I do know you need to review the book but sharing your comments (right or wrong) and using your statistical skills can “review” the life choices of many future grateful families.
Best Regards
Flavio
December 8, 2011 at 6:43 pm |
I think you should shut down the blog, Warren. You accomplished your mission and it’s too late to change the course of this nation. What is gained by continuing to comment on it. You wrote a very good book and were overall quite correct on the outcome. We are in a depression and it’s caused by debt and the disaster is headed over a cliff and can’t be stopped. I say move on and do something new or something different for a while. For me, this depression has been both wonderful and disheartening. I loaded up on gold in 2003 assuming our leaders were greedy and vain and the public wasn’t astute enough see the danger in war-mongering neocon Republicans. Two wars and a demolished economic system later, they vote in a social engineer Democrat who expands Bush’s unconstitutional policies and piles on his own craziness. It’s hopeless. Enjoy yourself for a while. You did your best, Warren.
December 11, 2011 at 8:33 pm |
Rather than ending your blog completely, perhaps you should consider taking a page from the Comstock Group. They only issue updates when they feel it is warranted. (Usually, I receive an update only once every 5 or 6 months). This would remove the grind of having to issue updates on a regular basis, and at the same time keep your readers informed of important changes in the economy or in your thinking. All you would have to do is request the email address of anyone interested in staying connected.
Whatever you decide, thank you for writing your books. They have been a great help to me. The only point I disagree with was your comment about failing to change the thinking of Americans regarding the coming depression by issuing warnings and solutions. Avoidance and preparation are just not in our culture. When Americans are ready, they will change and many of your ideas will be implemented. You have mapped out a pretty clear path.
December 13, 2011 at 3:59 pm |
Warren,
Take all the time you require for your next book.
Things will not change politically until the streets are filled with people….like currently in Russia…. members of the idiot nation cannot stem the movements taking place within the informed public.
Information, despite it’s ‘sanitizing’ by certain wealthy factions and the access to informational sources, ironically invented by our military (take heed) change of tremendous proportions will inevitable occur. Protection of Family and oneself is now paramount
Just a comment,”shorting 30 yr bonds” ??? Gold, when it has to be converted into a form of rapidly inflating currency ??? Just try getting your medications with a gold bar….Good Luck !!
December 16, 2011 at 4:25 am |
I have enjoyed reading this blog for years. Your voice has been calming and reassuring. I have no regrets that I didn’t buy gold, and happy I bought TIPS. I hope you’ll enjoy painting, and many other things. I hope you’ll relax and enjoy. But I make one prediction: you won’t be able to stay away from watching the economy like a hawk. We have to take to heart the expression “Don’t worry, be happy”. Originally the saying was “Do your best, then don’t worry be happy.” Meher Baba said it, and Bobby McFerrin sang it. So, be happy. Myrtle Beach is a nice place to relax. I will probably keep watching the economy. You, take a vacation in Australia, see the Solomon Seas, read some novels by Thomas Keneally, I envy you. The earth will not collapse. We were born after WWII, maybe we won’t have to live that tragedy over again. And there are positive signs, maybe some miracle is in the offing, but my damn pessimism can’t believe that. God knows. God help us all. Peace.
December 18, 2011 at 1:27 am |
Warren:
I thoroughly enjoy reading your updated blog and want to express my appreciation for your efforts. I will greatly miss reading them.
Thank you!
December 29, 2011 at 9:46 pm |
I totally understand your desire to rid yourself of this blog. However, I hope you will update us Quarterly. This is strictly selfish on my part as I value your critical thought. If you decide not to continue, I am 120% grateful for everything you have put into this.
December 31, 2011 at 8:02 pm |
Dear Warren,
Wish you a happy new year. And thank you a thousand times over for your generous share of knowlege during all these recent years. I will miss your updates a lot, though I have not given up all my hopes quite yet!
December 31, 2011 at 9:08 pm |
Wishing everyone good luck in 2012 and beyond … we will need it!
January 1, 2012 at 6:56 pm |
Happy New Year All!
Bob