Comments for Wbrussee's Weblog

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by James

James — Tue, 22 Dec 2009 13:17:46 +0000

Warren, your books have been an “eye opener” for me. I appreciate your knowledge. Peace to you and your family this season.

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Marcello

Marcello — Mon, 21 Dec 2009 01:44:00 +0000

Happy Holidays Waren and to all who follow this blog.

Next year will be difficult to many, so just rememeber, where there is Life there is Hope!

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by wbrussee

wbrussee — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 23:23:21 +0000

Averageguy asks: “Any opinions on … states and local governments’ tax collections are going to be painfully short in 2010.”

This is an underappreciated BIG DEAL that will affect markets and the economy!

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Averageguy

Averageguy — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 20:40:15 +0000

Any opinions on Meridith Whitney`s saying states and local goverments tax collections are going to be painfully short in 2010 .

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Averageguy

Averageguy — Sun, 20 Dec 2009 19:55:49 +0000

Happy Holidays to all….and a BIG THANK YOU to Warren . To be honest I enjoy your timely comments more then your excellent book .
In my personal investments, selling (not all at once ) some TIP, for EDV, .
Also dollar cost averaging into RTN, the defense contractor . And finally nibbling on ASA, & SGOL, when $GOLD moves under 1070 . The markets worry me so go slow .

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by espen

espen — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 21:29:23 +0000

Hmm, I think that was supposed to be attack. My heart attachment would probably be my girlfriend.

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by espen

espen — Thu, 17 Dec 2009 20:24:22 +0000

Marc Caplan, I am going to assume that I am “you” when I say the following in respect to the question
“Do you consider this other way of calculating the yield of the S&P500 a valid measure for making an investment decision on the relative merits of the stock market?”. I think that there is not many ways of answering such a question without getting a stress-induced heart attach, so Im just going to blurt out what the book “Financial statement analysis, third edition, university edition”, say on the matter-
“… the one remaining way to increase earnings per share , after exhausting the possibilities already discussed, is to reduce the number of shares outsanding.” Now its me again (still no heart attack), share buyback should only be last resort. And perhaps best ignored when stocks are ridiculously overpriced. (Goldman S. did just that before the bust, at least according to some article I read some time ago). So that at least answers the question for my sake. If im wrong, hopefully someone will correct me.
I also have a request for Warren in his update-

dear Warren, do you think that there is any way of glimpsing what the recovery is going to be like in x years? (assuming that this is a false dawn).

Best regards
E.

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Greg Specht

Greg Specht — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 19:49:54 +0000

Warren, thank for the updates and happy holidays to all!

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Dillard

Dillard — Wed, 16 Dec 2009 01:07:47 +0000

Thanks for the great update Warren.
I have been curious about the fact that the index of leading economic indicators has been rising for the last six months or so. In the past this has apparently been a reliable indicator.
I agree with you that it is very unlikely we are in a recovery, so I have been wondering if there might be some flaw in the index such as too much weight given to stock prices. If you felt like commenting on this at some point, that would be interesting.

Dillard

Comment on Mid-December 2009 Update of THE GREAT DEPRESSION of DEBT by Mark Caplan

Mark Caplan — Tue, 15 Dec 2009 22:57:52 +0000

Bloomberg has an article on the yield of the S&P500 where both dividends and stock buybacks are included. There is also an accompanying chart if you click on the tab labeled “Graphic” at the top of the article.

The combined yield (divs + buybacks) of the S&P500 at the end of the third quarter was 3.71 percent. Dividends taken alone gives a yield of under 2 percent.

I shouldn’t assume anything, but buybacks are only meaningful in this context if they are net buybacks, or the difference of gross buybacks minus gross stock issuance.

Do you consider this other way of calculating the yield of the S&P500 a valid measure for making an investment decision on the relative merits of the stock market?

Here’s the link to the Bloomberg article:
http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601109&sid=aE3IEjlKxt8o&pos=15

Mark