Artificial Intelligence Post Number 25

What is Elon Musk, the CEO of Tesla and Space X, up to? Many months ago he invested in a company called DeepMind, with the intent of monitoring the advance of AI; to make sure it didn’t go in evil directions that could hurt mankind. Then Google bought DeepMind. Now Elon and several others have “financed” over a billion dollars in a non-profit called OpenAI. It will be co-chaired by Elon and Sam Altman, the CEO of Y Combinator. They already have eight skilled researchers and are in the process of hiring more.

Per the company’s name, they plan to make everything they do public and open-sourced. They are not just going to be monitoring AI’s progress; they will be pushing the AI envelope themselves. Their goal is that once true AI happens, it will not only be in the hands of a few who could use it for evil purposes. Similar to the NRA saying that only a good guy with a gun can stop a bad guy with a gun, OpenAI hopes to have many good guys with thinking AI computers that can minimize or eliminate the power of an evil person, country, or company with AI that is potentially smarter than a million people. Amazon Web Services is donating much computer power and infrastructure. Elon has stated that much information will be shared from Tesla and Space X.

It is my guess that even Elon has been surprised at the progress of self-driving cars and the intelligence of the self-learning systems Tesla has developed. In fact Tesla has recently advertised for more programmers to work on these systems, and Elon has stated that he will interview the candidates himself and the group will be answering directly to him.

I am surprised that I am not getting more comments on this blog. Am I the only one that believes that we may be seeing disruptive gains in AI that exceed the most ambitious timelines “experts” have projected?

Advertisements

26 Responses to “Artificial Intelligence Post Number 25”

  1. Bob Kaufman Says:

    http://Www.yudkowsky.net/singularity/ai-risk/

    This white paper was written 7 years ago but it is extraordinarily interesting. It’s called “Artificial Intelligence Asa Postive and Negative Factor in Global Risk.” The author is a research fellow at Machine Intelligence Research Institute.

    If we do not blow ourself up, kill ourselves with biology or nanotechnology, or so screw up the environment to make earth uninhabitable – I think this will probably be the action item that has the most effect on our longevity as a species.

    We need to get this right.

    I suppose other things are occupying people’s mind as AI is not the present danger or helper the media is harping on at the moment.

    I, for one, hope you continue to write as it helps me think clearly about what’s happening.

  2. Bob K Says:

    From an article on this venture

    Elon Musk and Sam Altman worry that artificial intelligence will take over the world. So, the two entrepreneurs are creating a billion-dollar not-for-profit company that will maximize the power of AI—and then share it with anyone who wants it.

    At least, this is the message that Musk, the founder of electric car company Tesla Motors, and Altman, the president of startup incubator Y Combinator, delivered in announcing their new endeavor, an unprecedented outfit called OpenAI. In an interview with Steven Levy of Backchannel, timed to the company’s launch, Altman said they expect this decades-long project to surpass human intelligence. But they believe that any risks will be mitigated because the technology will be “usable by everyone instead of usable by, say, just Google.”

    QUESTION: How does making the technology available to everyone mitigate the risks?

  3. Bob K Says:

    Interesting website containing opinions and other information on “Friendly AI”

    https://wiki.lesswrong.com/wiki/Friendly_artificial_intelligence

    plus a link to an article on engineering kindness in a machine

    https://www.academia.edu/15865212/Engineering_Kindness_Building_A_Machine_With_Compassionate_Intelligence

    I will be reading this.

  4. wbrussee Says:

    Bob K asks, “How does making the technology available to everyone mitigate the risks?”

    I presume that Musk and Altman believe that by making the technology available to everyone, that this shared knowledge will make this approach to making advanced AI the most likely to succeed. Certainly not everyone will share their own knowledge back to OpenAI, but some likely will. Therefore OpenAI will be able to influence the direction of this work and likely be one of the first to develop true AI with thinking abilities. Whoever is first will likely be able to control those that discover AI later, because the first AI computer will likely be able to scan the net, look for signs of anyone pursuing AI with evil intentions, and shut them down. Remember that the thought is that once a computer becomes “thinking,” its knowledge and abilities will expand at exponential rates. So being first may enable that computer to “mitigate the risks” of an evil machine gaining this capability.

    • Bob Kaufman Says:

      I hope so . This stuff is getting scarier by the moment. I want the benefits but am increasingly afraid of the risks .

  5. Albert Says:

    Warren,
    Do you think the U.S. stock market is about to crash in 2016? Do you think the economies around the world and the U.S. has taken a down turn and heading for a global crisis and depression?

  6. wbrussee Says:

    Albert, I don’t believe the US market will crash this year. Yes, we are being affected by the mess in China and in Europe. But we have the strongest economy in the world. It is important to look at the longer term, not just last week. SPY is only down 4.1% in the last year, hardly anything to panic about. And the China issue has been going on longer than a year.

    There is a bit of good news regards distribution of wealth in the US. Those making low earnings, like those working in fast food, are being helped disproportionately by the lower gas prices. Someone earning $17,500 per year and driving 15,000 miles in a vehicle getting 15 MPG has gotten an equivalent 10% raise in the last year.

  7. Albert Says:

    Warren,
    The S & P 500 is down to 1890 which is almost 12% from it 52 week high of 2135. Is it possible that an aging U.S. baby boomer population is causing the current downturn? These people are spending less and possibly cashing out of stocks into safer investments. The group that is as large as the baby boomers are the millennials and most of them are stuck at low paying service jobs and don’t seem as materialistic as prior generations. Not to mention most aren’t able to spend or invest in stocks because they may be saddled with college debt and working in low paying service jobs.

    The canary in the coal mind seems to be the oil glut and slowing demand for products made in China. What do you think about these demographic issues? Do you think we may be headed for another great depression? In addition, what do you think about the FEDS raising interest rates and how it will impact the U.S. and global economy?

  8. Eduardo Says:

    Is Marketing becoming… “evil”?: emotient.com

  9. Bob Says:

    Nothing to see here.

    http://shipandbunker.com/news/world/578208-dry-bulkageddon-baltic-dry-index-falls-another-11-points-to-new-record-low-of-383-capesize-average-spot-tc-rates-dip-under-3000

  10. wbrussee Says:

    Albert asks, “Is it possible that an aging U.S. baby boomer population is causing the current downturn? These people are spending less and possibly cashing out of stocks into safer investments. … Millennials … aren’t able to spend or invest in stocks because they may be saddled with college debt and working in low paying service jobs.”

    I can easily make the other argument that baby boomers are not economically ready for retirement and must rely on the possibility that the market will go up because there are no “safe” investments that pay anything of note. They must therefore leave their money in the market. Yes, many of the millennials don’t have well-paying jobs and may be unable to save. But that is continual and would not account for the current swings that seem to be directly associated with the Chinese market and oil prices.

    Oil prices won’t go much lower because at some point the Saudis will see that any more pumping on their part will not further reduce fracking, and they have already pushed out the high-cost producers of oil.

    I don’t think that the small FED increase of interest rates did anything. Everyone was expecting it. China, however, will continue to be an issue because their whole economy and their stock market is built on sand. But we have as much to gain from their problems as we lose, because US industry will want to come home to a more stable economy and one being driven by a high level of automation which is driving down costs.

    We are not going to have another great depression. Yes, there could be a few more drops in the market. But look back 5 and 6 years ago and you will not see similar market drops without long term consequences, and our economy is in far better position now. As Obama said, those who say otherwise are peddling fiction!

  11. Albert Says:

    Warren,

    The U.S stock market is made up of alot of multi-national corporations counting on sales from foreign countries like China and in Europe. The U.S. economy may be strong but it seems you are discounting the effect of the slowing global economy on the U.S. stock market. Why do you think the depressed world economy and sales from those countries will not cause the U.S. stock market to continue to decline substantially? The U.S. economy may be stronger than the rest of the world but alot the companies in the U.S. stock market are counting on over seas growth to substantiate their over inflated stock prices. In your opinion, do you think the U.S. stock market is still over priced at these levels?

  12. wbrussee Says:

    Albert says, “The U.S. economy may be strong but it seems you are discounting the effect of the slowing global economy on the U.S. stock market.”

    The country whose economy is most being affected is China. Total exports from the US to China account for less than 1% of our GDP, so it is just not that big of a deal.

  13. Albert Says:

    Warren,

    The multi-national companies manufacture their products in the foreign countries and also sell their products in those countries. For example, Apple, Intel, Catepillar.

    https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_multinational_corporations

    Aren’t these the same companies on the S & P 500 and Dow Jones?

    It seems that we underestimate how many of these multinational corporations rely on foreign sales, profits and growth outlook. Your focusing on U.S. GDP but many of these companies are going to take a stock price hit due to their lofty foreign growth expectations over the last few years and the strong U.S. dollar.

    The U.S. has a population of 318 million people. The rest of the world has 7 billion people.

  14. wbrussee Says:

    Albert says, “The multi-national companies manufacture their products in the foreign countries and also sell their products in those countries…It seems that we underestimate how many of these multinational corporations rely on foreign sales, profits and growth outlook. You’re focusing on U.S. GDP, but many of these companies are going to take a stock price hit due to their lofty foreign growth expectations over the last few years and the strong U.S. dollar.”

    You are right! Sort of! Maybe! But maybe not! And here is why. A slowdown in business for a US company in China has far less an effect on the US stock market than the equivalent slowdown in a company in the US. When a company’s business slows down in the US, not only do their profits go down, but they lay off people which then has a multiplier effect in that those people without jobs reduce their spending on all products, thus affecting stock prices across the whole market. Not so for a slowdown in their China plants. In fact, we likely have an inverse effect. Companies invest where the market looks healthy, and right now that is the US. So companies will move their investments from China to the US. So, yes, profits may go down in China, but the investments/efforts/employment now coming back to the US will likely more than balance off the effect of the reductions of profits in China, because as industry grows in the US we get all the auxiliary benefits of growth in other supporting industries and service companies, positively affecting the whole market.

  15. Bob Says:

    https://caldaro.wordpress.com/2016/01/16/weekend-update-535/

  16. wbrussee Says:

    Regards Elliott Wave: http://www.forexfactory.com/showthread.php?t=167867

  17. Bob Says:

    I agree about EW. I have followed this guy for some time, and he is amazingly accurate. For the record he has been bullish until last week.

  18. wbrussee Says:

    Bob says, “…I have followed this guy for some time, and he is amazingly accurate.”

    He is predicting the S&P 500 going down to 1100 this year. So let’s see how well he does on that prediction. On every one of my updates, I will check on this. I just don’t see this happening. But then again, I missed seeing that the government would rescue the banks, car companies, etc.

    • Bob Kaufman Says:

      As long as the markets are closed and I don’t work today, I thought I would chime in on the discussion of the markets direction and the extent of any move downward from this point in the S&P 500 and the potential weakness in the Us economy.

      First, the long term story, in my opinion, is the debt being built up globally and domestically coupled with an aging baby boom generation, increasing life expectancies, and unfounded promises made to our aging that will cut out all funding for virtually anything else if the pattern does not change. Changing that pattern significantly will be difficult because the older than 65 generation is huge and votes.

      Second, my own and apparently both of your unending pursuit of understanding of systems that are far to complex and dynamic for us to comprehend is why I long for artificial intelligence. It’s just that I see the end result having the potential to being catastrophic for our species. But I am normally, too pessimistic.

      Warren, I hope you keep up the website. I am listening and I do value it. It’s fun o think about the future even if it’s scary.

      • Bob Kaufman Says:

        I meant to write “unfunded promises” not “unfounded promises”. The software changed the word automatically. Perhaps artificial intelligence is not as far along as I thought.

  19. Bob Says:

    I agree with you that the economy will weather the storm fairly well. I also think the market, especially certain stocks are very overvalued. For the people holding those stocks like Apple, and there are a lot, it’s not going to feel too great. It actually feels a lot more like 1999 than 2007. Very overvalued tech sector that will bring the market lower, but real estate will likely hold up. We should come out of any bear market in much better shape than the last two.

    • Bob Kaufman Says:

      This morning I reviewed a one hour interview with Elon Musk were he states that ai is progressing faster than he would have thought even one year ago and that he believes Auromous cars will be ready in about one year. The government may take a lot longer. The interview was in late October 7 2015

  20. Bob Says:

    http://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2016-01-18/rise-of-the-robots-will-eliminate-more-than-5-million-jobs

  21. Albert Says:

    Warren,

    What is your opinion on the U.S. oil sector debt default? How does it compare to the 2007-2008 mortgage loan defaults in terms impact to the economy? According to the article below these banks have several trillion dollars of exposure to oil and gas derivatives. Will the FED need to rescue banks again?

    http://dailyreckoning.com/oil-sector-debt/

    http://www.bloombergview.com/articles/2015-10-13/time-is-running-out-on-u-s-frackers

  22. Bob Says:

    “The sciences, each straining in its own direction, have hitherto harmed us little; but some day the piecing together of dissociated knowledge will open up such terrifying vistas of reality, and of our frightful position therein, that we shall either go mad from the revelation or flee from the deadly light into the peace and safety of a new dark age.”

    H.P. Lovecraft

Leave a Reply

Fill in your details below or click an icon to log in:

WordPress.com Logo

You are commenting using your WordPress.com account. Log Out / Change )

Twitter picture

You are commenting using your Twitter account. Log Out / Change )

Facebook photo

You are commenting using your Facebook account. Log Out / Change )

Google+ photo

You are commenting using your Google+ account. Log Out / Change )

Connecting to %s


%d bloggers like this: