Artificial Intelligence Post Number 26

The U.S. Proposes Spending $4 Billion to Encourage Driverless Cars. The Obama administration aims to remove hurdles to making autonomous cars more widespread. Tesla’s head Elon Musk says that autonomous cars are ahead of schedule, and self-driving cars could be here in as little as a year. Estimates of 25,000 lives being saved once autonomous cars are fully implemented are “driving” this extensive technological effort which includes the development of self-learning algorithms, which are keys to AI.

But stodgy old IBM may be leading the pack on AI advancement. Here are excerpts from an interview on Forbes, done by Peter High, President of Metis Strategy. Peter interviewed IBM Watson Head Mike Rhodin On The Future Of Artificial Intelligence. You can find the whole article here: http://www.forbes.com/sites/peterhigh/2016/01/18/ibm-watson-head-mike-rhodin-on-the-future-of-artificial-intelligence/#4e7c0091306454c4fba23064.

Watson has been busy since winning on Jeopardy! Watson is now working in 17 different industries. The main industry has been healthcare, and Watson is working with many of the top hospitals and healthcare providers in the world. The mass amount of data alone requires computer help. “In 2015 alone, we will produce something around seven hundred thousand new reference documents in medicine. I am pretty sure most doctors do not have time to read all of them.” Many other professions like law have the same issue of too much data for human comprehension.

“Watson mirrors the human chain of events when we make decisions: it observes, it interprets, it evaluates, and it makes decisions.” “The key breakthrough was that we were able to feed the system natural language text: reference material, the internet, Wikipedia, web pages.” “The basis of the system is that you read it, you train it, and then you continue to learn through use– much like we do. It is mirroring the human learning process.”

Watson Analytics, Watson Discovery Advisor, and Watson Explorer are three service offerings. Watson Analytics learns over time how to identify the correct data sources that you want to apply to a problem and how to make recommendations on how to improve the data to get a better outcome. Watson Discovery Advisor creates a framework for how you can interact with the computer, whether it is asking questions or having a dialogue back and forth. Watson Explorer helps us work within an enterprise to pull together lots of different types of information from existing enterprise data sources, but then take that information and connect it up to cloud-based Watson systems.

“Not only does Watson have the ability to read information, we have both voice-to-text, text-to-voice capabilities, and computer vision capabilities added in. We started teaching Watson to speak new languages. We started with Spanish and Japanese, we have added Brazilian Portuguese; we are working on Arabic right now. French and Italian are right behind it, and German will be in the wings.”

“You see…the third technological revolution getting started here…the information revolution. This is something that is going to be with us for decades.” In my opinion, you are seeing the start of the AI revolution!

Update on EW’s prediction that the S&P 500 will drop 41.6% this year from 1880 to 1100. I don’t believe it! The current S&P is 1881, up 0.05%.

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7 Responses to “Artificial Intelligence Post Number 26”

  1. Bob Says:

    I think somewhere between 1500-1700 on the S&P is much more realistic.

  2. wbrussee Says:

    I agree!

  3. Albert Says:

    Is it possible that we are underestimating the systemic risk of oil prices crashing? I wonder if computer trading will make the coming stock market crash even worse. Could there be a black swan event about to occur with oil company debt? Has anything changed really from 2008 except for more money printing by central bankers. Has taxes increased for the wealthy? Has more well paying jobs been created? Americans aren’t spending the money they are saving from cheap gas. We have become a nation of savers.

  4. Bob Kaufman Says:

    On Saturday morning I will be attending a presentation on AI by a professor at the U of Minnesota named Maria Gini – ( you can look her up on-line). she is head of the robotics area there and Is a member of the association for the advancement of artificial intelligence. She is well connected internationally and highly regarded. There will be 50 or so attendees. If I can get a question or two in what would have me ask?

  5. Bob kaufman Says:

    Anyone who predicts a move from 2048 on the S&P 500 to 1100 in one year is making a projection with little historic precedent for being true even when they make that prediction when stocks begin the year trading two standard deviation above their regression line and the global and domestic economy ends the previous year weaker than it began and starts by giving out weaker signals still. It’s just a low percentage forecast. What is more important than such predictions is to get a handle on where we are over the long term debt cycle and whether or not a recession seems likely over the next 6-12 months. I suggest you guys watch an interview on CNBC yesterday with Ray Dalio – who manages the world’s largest hedge fund and one on Bloomberg in the last 30 days with Sam Zell – one of the world’s most successful real estate investors. Then give us feedback on what you think about the information and expert opinions they are providing.

  6. wbrussee Says:

    Bob Kaufman asks, If I can get a question or two in to Marie Gini, what would you have me ask? I would ask her what area she expects to take the lead in self-learning AI? Medical? Autonomous cars? Stock market investing? Robots? Other? Also, whether AI will ever become truly “independent thinking?”

  7. wbrussee Says:

    Albert, I have looked for quantitative answers to your questions, and I cannot find them. But here is my opinion. First, the reductions in oil/gasoline prices are one of the few events in recent history that help the poor more than the wealthy. The oil tycoons and stock holders of oil-related firms are obviously experiencing losses, as are banks that made loans supporting fracking, etc. But these will not be of the magnitude of the housing mortgage disaster.

    As I have stated before, those in low paying jobs have gotten a substantial increase because their gasoline expenses, which are a substantial part of their expenditures, have gone down dramatically. People ARE spending, as supported by the record number of cars sold last year.

    The US is in the best position to ride out this event with minimal drama, if we use this opportunity to put a tax on the low gasoline prices to pay for road/bridge repairs, which will support many well paying jobs. We also must not let low gasoline prices get in the way of our transition to clean fuels and clean transportation. This transition offers almost unlimited job potential making/installing solar panels and building electric vehicles. We are on a cusp of a very growth oriented era with manufacturing back in the US heavily supported by robots made here in the US, again supporting more jobs! Yes, not as many jobs if robots weren’t helping, but still a lot of jobs.

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