NYU research psychologist Gary Marcus has said that “virtually everyone” who works in AI believes that machines will eventually overtake us: “The only real difference between enthusiasts and skeptics is a time frame.”
We have seen that Google’s DeepMind system is proficient at “Go;” we have seen the almost daily advances towards autonomous driving; we have seen the apparent use of AI in investment programs that chase the stock market; and we have seen AI medical programs that already can beat doctors in identifying some types of illnesses. But this does NOT mean that true thinking AI is going to happen in the next few years. I believe that the 2025 date I forecast in my novel “Artificial Intelligence Newborn, it is 2025 and I am Here” is still a good estimate.
All the current AI programs are narrow in that they are apparently only searching data already identified as being applicable to the subject of interest. As time goes on and computers become more powerful, the search restraints will be opened to look outside the current search boundaries such that discoveries/correlations will be found that humans have not yet seen. And from these discoveries the computers/software will extend knowledge beyond what we mere humans can. Will this be thinking? If you are religious and think that God gave us special thinking abilities, perhaps you will not accept this as thinking. If you believe that computers must “think” in the same manner as the human brain, then you may not accept computer AI as thinking. But if you only look at the output of AI, and accept that it could well be the next step in evolution, then what will eventually happen with AI will be truly “thinking.”
But that may create a problem. We humans have a lot of hang-ups that cause war, global warming, risk of nuclear disaster, etc. If computers don’t have these emotional hang ups, at what point will the computers identify humans as a problem to be solved? And what options will they consider to solve the “human problem?” Will they only act on this with human approval, or at some point will they recognize that humans are just a hindrance to advanced knowledge.
As I promised, here is an update on Elliot Wave’s prediction that the S&P 500 will drop 41.6% this year from 1880 to 1100. I said that don’t believe it! The current S&P is 2016, up 7.2% since EW’s prediction early this year.