Artificial Intelligence Post Number 31

NYU research psychologist Gary Marcus has said that “virtually everyone” who works in AI believes that machines will eventually overtake us: “The only real difference between enthusiasts and skeptics is a time frame.”

We have seen that Google’s DeepMind system is proficient at “Go;” we have seen the almost daily advances towards autonomous driving; we have seen the apparent use of AI in investment programs that chase the stock market; and we have seen AI medical programs that already can beat doctors in identifying some types of illnesses. But this does NOT mean that true thinking AI is going to happen in the next few years. I believe that the 2025 date I forecast in my novel “Artificial Intelligence Newborn, it is 2025 and I am Here” is still a good estimate.

All the current AI programs are narrow in that they are apparently only searching data already identified as being applicable to the subject of interest. As time goes on and computers become more powerful, the search restraints will be opened to look outside the current search boundaries such that discoveries/correlations will be found that humans have not yet seen. And from these discoveries the computers/software will extend knowledge beyond what we mere humans can. Will this be thinking? If you are religious and think that God gave us special thinking abilities, perhaps you will not accept this as thinking. If you believe that computers must “think” in the same manner as the human brain, then you may not accept computer AI as thinking. But if you only look at the output of AI, and accept that it could well be the next step in evolution, then what will eventually happen with AI will be truly “thinking.”

But that may create a problem. We humans have a lot of hang-ups that cause war, global warming, risk of nuclear disaster, etc. If computers don’t have these emotional hang ups, at what point will the computers identify humans as a problem to be solved? And what options will they consider to solve the “human problem?”  Will they only act on this with human approval, or at some point will they recognize that humans are just a hindrance to advanced knowledge.

As I promised, here is an update on Elliot Wave’s prediction that the S&P 500 will drop 41.6% this year from 1880 to 1100. I said that don’t believe it! The current S&P is 2016, up 7.2% since EW’s prediction early this year.

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10 Responses to “Artificial Intelligence Post Number 31”

  1. Hugh Jazole Says:

    I’m glad you mentioned global warming. I was quite skeptical for many years, but recently decided to learn more about the subject. Some of the most knowledgable people on the subject, are saying that the train has officially left the station. They believe there will be severe food shortages within the decade.

  2. wbrussee Says:

    What I don’t understand about the people who don’t believe global warming data or logic is why they can’t see the benefits of the suggested actions with or without believing that global warming is influenced by our coal/oil usage. Solar/wind power helps other issues like pollution and related health issues. Also, the introduction of large scale solar panel production and related battery storage will not only give us cleaner air, but it will supply jobs and make us energy independent.

  3. Hugh Jazole Says:

    Excellent blog post about AI.

    http://thezman.com/wordpress/?p=6815

  4. bill Says:

    Artificial Unintelligence?

    http://www.businessinsider.com/microsoft-deletes-racist-genocidal-tweets-from-ai-chatbot-tay-2016-3

  5. wbrussee Says:

    Bill, your question whether that is artificial intelligence is quite interesting. Even though this is not truly AI, it demonstrates how AI without morality instructions could get into a lot of trouble. But who determines the correct morality values to feed into AI?

  6. Bill Says:

    http://www.desdemonadespair.net/2016/04/our-leaders-thought-fracking-would-save.html

  7. wbrussee Says:

    Forbes: “Forget Saudi Arabia, Tesla Is The Real Threat To American Frackers”

    http://www.forbes.com/sites/panosmourdoukoutas/2016/04/10/forget-saudi-arabia-tesla-is-the-real-threat-to-american-frackers/?utm_campaign=yahootix&partner=yahootix#7a462d554787

    By the way, I am one of the 325,000 people who put $1,000 down on this Tesla Model 3, which I likely will not get for two years. I drove 1 ½ hours to Charlotte, NC and stood in line for 2 ½ hours so I would be early in the priority list.

    Fracking was an effective temporary fix to drive down oil prices. Solar and wind with battery backup will be the final nails.

  8. Bob Kaufman Says:

    Interest Announcement April 5th

    Hpcwire.com

    NIVIDIA Launches World’s First Deep Learning Supercomputer

  9. Mark Says:

    Hi Warren, What do you think of this? http://thesovereigninvestor.com/exclusives/80-stock-market-crash-to-strike-in-2016/?z=479303

    • wbrussee Says:

      The title was followed by a contradictory statement:

      Title: 80% Stock Market Crash To Strike in 2016, Economist Warns

      Statement: “U.S. stocks are now about 80% overvalued.”

      80% overvalued says that the market should drop 44% to get back to their “proper” value, not an “80% crash.” And when I started to watch the video I gagged from the oversell. I gave up!

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